Russia’s economy is in for a very rough long-term decline, according to practically all economists from within Russia and abroad, as Putin’s war made the situation in the country even worse than it was before.

In 2023, one year after the invasion started, there was an interview with Natalia Zubarevich, a Professor of the Department of Economic And Social Geography of Russia at the Moscow State University, claiming that in Russia ‘there will be no collapses, but rather a viscous, slow sinking into Bbackwardness.’ More than two years old, the interview is still highly accurate imho, and Ms. Zubarevich has foreseen everything so far.

Most economist also agree with your mentioned notion that Ukraine will get some help from the West to rebuild the country, and they may even be able to convince some Ukrainian refugees to return, and some migrants to settle in Ukraine.

The same is highly unlikely for Russia, though. Even long before the war, Putin’s government led many experts to a devastating conclusion for the brain drain from the country reveals that the Kremlinʼs authoritarian modernization has failed and deepens Russia’s longer-term problems, as the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in 2019 wrote, for example:

It is estimated that 1.6 to 2 million people have emigrated from Russia during the nearly 20-year period of Vladimir Putinʼs rule. In the light of these figures, some researchers talk about the fifth wave of emigration in Russian history. Emigration has accelerated particularly since Putin began his third presidency in 2012, and in 2017, for example, an estimated 377,000 people moved out of Russia.

So there is hope for Ukraine, but I don’t know of a single study that says the same about Russia.