“What if we kissed and it was so average that science didn’t talk about us?”

There we go

To be honest, I’ve kept thinking of this branching stuff for the past few days lol.

Got it! So you’re saying that the last choice is between 2³³ or 0 and the last guy has a probably x of pulling the lever and killing everyone (therefore a (1-x) probability of killing nobody).

So, even if it’s guaranteed that nobody along the way pulls the lever (the best case scenario if we want 0 dead), the expected value at the last branch is x · 2³³ + (1-x) · 0. And the only way this is less than 1 is if x < 1 / 2³³, which is an absurdly tiny probability.

If we also consider the intermediary probabilities, this already tiny probability threshold of 1 / 2³³ of killing nobody gets SMALLER because we’re allowing more chances for killing way more than 1 person along the way.

I am not seeing it. Are you saying the last person chooses between killing nobody and killing the entire population? Also, what about the intermediary likelihoods of pulling the lever?