Even for refugees who still consider themselves temporary refugees it will be difficult to return without a lasting peace. And none of the proposed peace deals so far have the making of a permanent deal.
The only possible way I see it for a lasting peace is the Russians giving up at one point. But that looks unlikely to happen within the next year and Ukraine is going to have troubles just staying in the war without massive foreign aid.
It really is becoming time for Europe to step up and turn the screws on Russia by declaring a no-fly zone and start bombing the everliving shit out of any Russian troops in Ukraine.
It really is becoming time for Europe to step up and turn the screws on Russia by declaring a no-fly zone and start bombing the everliving shit out of any Russian troops in Ukraine.
What do you think the Russians would do if NATO countries start bombing their troops in Ukraine?
They would not do shit except crying because they can’t even defeat Ukrain. How are they supposed to start a second front?
I don’t consider the Russian leadership to be rational actors. The invasion of Ukraine was not rational. I think they will use nukes if NATO starts engaging their troops. The Russian state media constantly writes about how good it would be to drop nuclear bombs on other countries, and how they could easily “win” a nuclear exchange. And most Russians support the regime and are willing to give up their lives for it.
Another huge part will be the many Ukrainians, who moved to the Western parts of the country. Especially in combination with the destruction of the war, we likely see the east loosing a lot more population when it is all done.
Also it will be intressting to see what happens to Russia. Their problem is not on the same scale, but imho it is much more likely that the Russians who fleed the war will never return, while there also is a good chance that if Russia looses, the economy will be a complete disaster, whereas Ukraine getting at least some help from the West. So it seems likely to me that a lot of Russians leave the country at that point as well.
if Russia looses, the economy will be a complete disaster
Their economy is and will be a disaster no matter how the war ends. They’ve spent everything and then some. Their reserves are gone, their currency became worthless, they lost a million+ of skilled workers, and Europe has all but stopped buying their resources. They’re completely fucked. The way things look now, there will be another perestroika.
Russia’s economy is in for a very rough long-term decline, according to practically all economists from within Russia and abroad, as Putin’s war made the situation in the country even worse than it was before.
In 2023, one year after the invasion started, there was an interview with Natalia Zubarevich, a Professor of the Department of Economic And Social Geography of Russia at the Moscow State University, claiming that in Russia ‘there will be no collapses, but rather a viscous, slow sinking into Bbackwardness.’ More than two years old, the interview is still highly accurate imho, and Ms. Zubarevich has foreseen everything so far.
Most economist also agree with your mentioned notion that Ukraine will get some help from the West to rebuild the country, and they may even be able to convince some Ukrainian refugees to return, and some migrants to settle in Ukraine.
The same is highly unlikely for Russia, though. Even long before the war, Putin’s government led many experts to a devastating conclusion for the brain drain from the country reveals that the Kremlinʼs authoritarian modernization has failed and deepens Russia’s longer-term problems, as the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in 2019 wrote, for example:
It is estimated that 1.6 to 2 million people have emigrated from Russia during the nearly 20-year period of Vladimir Putinʼs rule. In the light of these figures, some researchers talk about the fifth wave of emigration in Russian history. Emigration has accelerated particularly since Putin began his third presidency in 2012, and in 2017, for example, an estimated 377,000 people moved out of Russia.
So there is hope for Ukraine, but I don’t know of a single study that says the same about Russia.
Ukraine has a population decline since 1993. The war makes the situation worse, but even returning refugees and a likely baby boom still means that they are in structural decline.
The bigger issue for Russia is honestly Central Asia. With the Russian economy in trouble the income gap is closing. At the same time they are looking for alternatives. South Korea for example is an obvious choice given the situation in the country and the Korean diaspora in Central Asia.
The other big problem for Russia might just be independence movements.
Ukraine has a population decline since 1993.
Long before that. I grew up in West Toronto, and the area was full of older Ukranian immigrants from the 1970s who immigrated to Canada with mysterious sources of wealth. They all landed and bought businesses. Seems like this was the model for Ukranians who did well in the Ukraine, get rich and GTFO.
while there also is a good chance that if Russia looses, the economy will be a complete disaster
Russias economy is held up only on war efforts and even that is starting to shake. Every other business is struggling to get workforce and a lot of the supply chains are lost due to sanctions. It doesn’t really matter if they win or lose, economically they’ll be in a very difficult situation when the war ends.
Russia is also facing losing their fossil fuel customers. Even if (big if) the war ends today and sanctions are lifted: There will be a some countries and companies buying russian gas and oil, but Europe has now their new LNG terminals with some long term contracts. We are also building renewable energy in a rapid speed and every solar panel and each new wind turbine is producing energy that Russia can’t sell after the war. And that is happening all over the world, which is really bad news for Putins perspective after the war.
Babies born now won’t be the ones rebuilding the country. They’ll be the ones growing up in bombed landscapes and suffering from both the traumas their parents have and ones they get while the war continues.
My grandma was born during WW2. She was still a child when many of Germany‘s cities were leveled. It was normal to her. Daily life. But people moved on. They rebuilt the country and grandma lived through the most prosperous times our country has ever seen. And she did her part in it, working in a factory and raising several children. It wasn‘t always easy but she has a good life and is pretty healthy for her age.
The difference being, Germany was/is a democratic country benefiting from foreign investment. Russia is the opposite. The countries are not comparable.
My mum has a story of her playing hide and seek in Vienne while Russian soldiers were shooting at what remained of the Nazi army. Apparently she thought it was fun. Children are strange…
Ukraine was facing a population decline already before 2022, and the war made the situation worse. But Ukraine is by far not alone with the problem of a shrinking population as almost the entire world will face it in the next decades. Only a few countries in Central Asia and Africa are exempted. The decline is especially pronounced in China, where the population will decline by a factor of 2.2 in this century reaching ~600 million, down form the current 1.4 billion) as well as in the U.S., and Russia, where fertility rates have fallen below the population replacement level.
China does not have the problem of a massive war killing a lot of people and creating a massive refugee wave. Ukraine is down to 36million people from 42million in 2022. That is like China loosing 200million people over three years. The natural decline to 600million is the UN estimate for the end of the decade so an annual decline of about 10million.
The only country with somewhat similar issues is Russia, but they do not have as big of a refugee crisis.
I feel like China is probably better equiped to make necessary changes to deal with decreasing population better than most other countries.
Why?
Dictatorships dont have the checks and balances. That is just a fact
Which is why they are always less stable than democracies.
Dictatorships dont have the checks and balances. That is just a fact
And? The trend of a society that gets older and older can’t be reversed by dictatorial order. The issue of a countrywide worker shortage can’t be cracked down. A lack of resources to pay reasonable pensions is a problem you can’t shoot at.
You asked why china might be better equipped. I amswered it.
I dont think they can handle this one any better, maybe even worse, than other nations.
Dictatorships can just tell people not to die and plant new kids
No. But they dont have a lenghty process to make laws and regulations
I don’t have a lengthy process to deal with nazis and you really sound like one.
What makes you say that? Because i said the obviouse that dictatorships have a lot of power concentrated in one person, therefore the dictator can do as they pleases?
